NOT IN USE for 2013!!!!!!.....
Risk Assessment and Communication
| Back to PROTEUS home |
| Main Page and weekly log |
| Course outline |
| TESTS & EXAMS EXAM ROOM ARRANGEMENTS |
| PRACTICE PROBLEMS, and solutions: (trees, etc.) |
| PRACTICE PROBLEMS, and solutions (chronic risk calculations) |
| RISK COMMUNICATION PAGE (UNDER CONSTRUCTION) |
| ASSIGNMENT (not for W2013) |
| OUTRAGE FACTORS |
| UNCERTAINTY |
Main PAGE and weekly log:
ES 8927 / FALL 2012:
Risk
ASSESSMENT
AND COMMUNICATION
for ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
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THE WEEKLY LOG: The proposed content for each week is shown in a light GREEN, and as we actually cover the material, the background will revert to a yellow, confirming the content. This will help in remembering what we covered each week and also for exam/test review. It also allows you to access links to any available Powerpoint® material from that week. CAUTION! Powerpoint® can be dangerous to your mastery of this material. We have observed an INCREASING failure rate among people who view these graphic explanations and illustrations in class or at home without actually doing the analysis. The content may seem clear and understandable at the time, but to retain it, understand it, and attain the competency for exam purposes or real-world situations, you MUST actually DO the calculations yourself, several times. In general, material that is well covered in the course notes will not be reproduced again here. Powerpoint® will be used to supplement course notes and follow up with content that needs a little extra depth.
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New arrangement for first take home test:
Because of the disruption of reading week, I will be posting the test on this website THURSDAY 27 SEPT., (week 4). IF YOU RETURN
THE TEST BY THE END OF WEEK FIVE (8 days later, Friday October 5th) I will will earn an extra 7.5% on whatever the assignment brings in (up to a maximum of 30 marks).
Just to be clear, the assignment is out of 30. If it earns 26.5 marks, the new mark is 26.5 x 1.075 = 28.5 If you earn 28, the new mark will be 30
| Week | Date | Topics | Pages in notes | Other media/sources |
| 1 |
Catastrophic risk. * Introduction to "Risk" defined and categorized. * Example of a risk calculation. * Review of basic probability theory * 'Addition' formulae, & Venn diagrams. * Multiplication and Conditional probabilities |
Outline and p. 5-8, 9-15 Q# 1 (p. 67) |
PP: "Fly or drive" | |
| 2 |
Catastrophic risk. (contd.) * Use of contingency tables - examples * Trees. * Dependence, |
p.
9-26
Q# 2-5 (p. 67-68)
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PP Solutions to problems on catastrophic risk | |
| 3
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Catastrophic risk. (contd.) * Baye's theorem for prior probabilities * Use of exponents for outcomes with high-N iterations |
p.19-23
Q# 13-18 |
PP Solutions to problems on catastrophic risk | |
| 4
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Catastrophic risk. (contd.) * Reverse calculations, review, special situations and more problem-solving examples
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All of this section and all remaining problems in handbook (p. 67-71) |
PP
Back-calculation NEW PP Solution to #19 |
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| 5 |
Chronic risk: 4-step EPA model: step 1 and step 2 and review dose-response & toxicology
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worked examples step 1 and step 2
P. 29-38 |
PP:
EPA STEP 2: Env Pathways DVD: RISK: NATURE OF THINGS CBC |
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| OCT 8-12 | READING WEEK | |||
| 6 |
#1 Take-home assignment final due date Chronic risk (contd.): 4-step EPA model step 3-4 (contd) Brief review of the relevant toxicology |
P. 39-45 R.E. Keenan notes p.46-47 . |
PP: stochastic
PP: EPA STEP 3 : toxicology review
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7
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Risk Characterisation examples using environmental data and case studies.
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P. 48-64
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PP: Delaney clause
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| 8 |
Chronic risk (contd.): This week we will go through further examples in class, calculating daily intakes and dealing with variations in types of questions and endpoints of the calculation. Review of methods and examples Sample 4-table spreadsheet for practice POSTED HERE: #2 Seven-day take-home assignment |
P. 48-64 |
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| 9 |
#2 Assignment Due FRI 9 NOV: 3:30 p.m. Drop box outside POD249 Risk Perception: Principles - overview of the literature and state of the art. |
Slovic mental mapping model p.73 Cluster analysis videos and discussion |
pp:
Introduction to outrage factors (to be taken up in full next week
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| 10 | Outrage factors: (Peter Sandman)
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Hance, Chess & Sandman p.86 Covello, p.74 Sly. p. 91 |
PP: Outrage factors (part 1) Please note that the blue-on-blue text on some of these slides is intentional. The CONTRASTED items are the only ones you should focus on in each example) | |
| 11 | Case study: Town Hall meeting
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DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 1 DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting Part 2 |
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| 12 |
Risk communication principles; problem solving,
getting the message right, tackling the media. Samples of good
and bad media responses (in video and print).
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Wilson & Crouch p.77
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pp: 23 tips for risk communication pp: Dos and don'ts of R/Communic
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| Exam period: |
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