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STRUCTURE OF THE COURSE: The course is in three parts. Technical and professional personnel in all environmental, health and safety sciences will find all parts useful and increasingly applicable in their respective fields. We will mainly use interactive lecture and dialogue. Some of the material will be fairly new and unfamiliar at first, but the skills are easily acquired, provided you make the effort to do the in-class exercises and especially the homework exercises. 1. The first is an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We will apply the principles from probability theory to determine and measure catastrophic risk and events. These are unusual events that would be catastrophic or could cause deaths or casualties should they occur. Analysing and predicting these situations is done using four methods, all based on simple probability theory. 2. The second part quantitative risk assessment (QRA) gives you the ability to calculate and assess chronic risks, in other words, to determine the risk to an individual of developing a fatal cancer (or non-carcinogenic fatal outcome) over a lifetime due to low exposures to toxic substances over a long time. For this we use the US-EPA four-step model.3. Getting the numbers right is only the essential first step in any risk assessment, but what to do with those numbers, how to express them meaningfully, and how to effectively assist governments, industry, colleagues, and the public in their respective decision-making processes is the theme of the third and final part of the course. The perception and communication of risk borrows from the behavioural sciences, and here we explore the complex set of criteria by which people 'see' and identify risks to others and especially to themselves and their environment. Several videotaped segments and case studies will be used to illustrate these criteria. We will attempt to include a useful session on dealing with the media and interviews. OBJECTIVES At the end of the course, the learner should be able to (1) calculate probabilities of events using Venn diagrams, formul æ, contingency tables, and probabilistic/event trees, (2) calculate and interpret any increased risk of mortality attributable to lifetime exposure to substances in the environment or workplace, using standard techniques of risk assessment, (3) discuss the current theories of risk perception, decision-making under uncertainty, and the techniques for effective risk communication.TOPICS TO BE COVERED
> Introduction to origins and evolution of risk assessment, risk terminology and definitions.> Dealing with uncertainty: Probability theory applied to risk and uncertainty. Formulae for multiplication and addition of probabilities, conditional probabilities, independence, mutual exclusivity > Use of Venn diagrams, contingency tables, and trees to display and solve simple problems in probability. > Bayes theorem application; > stochastic v deterministic methods; clusters: identification and determination, interpretation and framing
> The R/A process in chronic risk settings using the 4 stage EPA model: hazard identification, exposure assessment, toxicity assessment, risk characterization,
> Risk perception - the phenomenon - understanding it, and its significance. > Risk communication - what it is and how to improve effective risk communication > Risk comparisons - the effective and the troublesome. > Dealing with the media - tips and techniques. [Extensive use will be made of examples and case studies drawn from life, the media, and recent events] ASSESSMENT> Take-home test #1 b ased on the first part of the course (30%) week 5> Take-home test #2 based on the second part of the course (30%) week 10> C omprehensive final test (40%). More weight given to the perception and communication material.READINGS/NOTESNo single textbook encompasses the range of material introduced during this course. A package of notes, calculation guide, problem set, tables, and readings has been prepared and will be available during the first week of class from ALICOS printing (Church St. just N of Gerrard St.). Ask for the (green) notes for the RISK course: ES 8927. Additional handouts and other materials will be available during the term.ACADEMIC MISCONDUCT Students are reminded that the provisions of the academic misconduct policy are vigorously enforced throughout the University and its program departments. If you are unsure about exactly what "plagiarism" means, or any of the other provisions, We recommend visiting the official Ryerson Website.
TESTS AND EXAMINATIONS Results of any graded course work (other than the final exam) will be posted close to my office door. The mark will be shown without any name, and arranged in order by the last five digits of your student ID number. No final results can be revealed at the end of term except through the office of the Registrar. Students are reminded that only valid rationale for missing tests and exams will be considered, and the acceptable documentation for this is clearly set out in Ryerson policy. Please note the 3 day limit for submitting such documentation, and the default penalty of zero for the submitted work.
MISSED TESTS OR EXAMINATIONS Please do NOT book holidays, weddings, or anything else which will interfere with tests and exam times. Religious observances require ADVANCED notification. In cases of verified illness, documentation is required using the official Ryerson medical certificate. This must be submitted within three days. CALCULATORS Calculators brought into the exam room for tests and exams must not be programmable or equipped with broadcast or communication functions.
COMMUNICATION WITH INSTRUCTOR I will do everything I can to respond to questions, clarification, etc. But in order to use the limited time wisely and fairly for all concerned, I want to emphasize the following:
YOU are responsible for any material you have missed; where the material has been covered in detail in a class at which you were not present, you must obtain the notes from colleagues and friends. I do not have time (especially this term) to reiterate previous lectures on a one-on-one basis. However, where you HAVE tried examples and problems and are getting "stuck" at some point, please come to an office hour (normally at least 5hrs are scheduled each week) and show me where you are getting into difficulties.
With regard to e-mail enquiries, I will endeavour to respond the same day during weekdays, but weekend questions may sometimes need to wait until Monday due to previous scheduling and engagements.
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