|
Week |
Date |
Topics |
Pages in notes |
Other media/sources |
| 1 |
|
*
Introduction to Catastrophic risk.
*
"Risk" defined and categorized.
* Example
of a risk calculation.
* Review
of basic probability theory, examples using formulae, &
Venn diagrams. |
Outline
and p.2-8 |
PP:
"Fly or drive"
PP. notes
on probability |
| 2 |
|
*Contd. use of
contingency tables and trees.
*
Conditional probabilities, dependence, |
p. 8-23 |
PP. notes
on probability |
| 3 |
|
* Baye's theorem for prior probabilities;
* Use of
exponents for outcomes with high-N iterations |
p.24
|
PP Solutions to problems on
catastrophic risk |
| 4 |
|
*
Reverse calculations,
* Review
and problem-solving examples
|
|
PP Back-calculation
example |
| 5 |
|
*
: Mid-term test #1
* Chronic
risk: Intro: Four-step EPA model: step 1
|
step 1
Section 3.0 up to p35 |
EPA Integrated
Risk Information System (IRIS) |
| |
|
READING WEEK (no classes) |
|
6 |
|
*
Chronic risk: step 2 (contd.),
* Review dose-response & toxicology
* Chronic risk: step 3
|
step 2 and sep 3
p 26-30
p 40-41
p.42-47
p. 48-51 |
PP:
EPA STEP 3 : toxicology
review
|
|
7
|
|
* Chronic
risk: step 4, and examples *
Monte-Carlo (stochastic) techniques.
* Chronic risk: Criticism of the risk
assessment model;
|
Keenan notes p.40-41 in Course Handbook |
PP: stochastic
PP:
EPA STEP 4:
characterization
PP:
PP_
example: arsenic in water
|
|
8 |
|
NEW!..Just posted:... Solutions to questions on p.44
Practice spreadsheet analysis distributed for Mid-term
test#2 Special examples and case studies.
UFFI insulation case study |
.
|
PP: Delaney clause
|
|
9 |
|
* Mid-term test #2
|
|
PP:
uncertainty
Risk Comparisons |
|
10 |
|
* Risk perception &
Communication R: f(H,O) * Risk Perception & communication: Uncertainty. More
case studies
* Seven Steps in Risk Communication
|
Papers by
Hance, Chess, Sandman, V. Covello |
PP:
outrage factor page
(Please note that the blue-on-blue text on some of these slides is
intentional. The CONTRASTED items are the only ones you should focus on in
each example)
VIDEO: Selected media/tapes
PP 23 tips
for risk communication |
|
11 |
|
* Risk
Communication: getting the message right,
|
|
DVD: ETOBICOKE BL4 LAB case study: town hall meeting
PP:Dos & Don'ts of
communications
7-point checklist (see Sly, CPHA in
manual)
|
|
12 |
|
* Media relations: the press, radio and TV
interviews
* Tuesday Apr 9: REVIEW of all course |
|
PP Dealing
with the media
DVD: Numbers and
Probabilities |
| |
|
E X A M P E R I O D (T O B E A N N
O U N C E D ) |
|
|