PROTEUS

              

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

PROBABILISTIC RISK ANALYSIS

TO CKSH 100 ......PLEASE NOTE.... Here are the answers to the FIVE questions we examined during the class.

 

5.  (a) 0.40   (b) 0.60    (c) 0.70   (d) yes
6.  (a) 5.988x10-3  (b) 0.994012
11.  Dialysis: 68% survival  vs.  transpl: 66% survival
14.    (a) 0.11385    (b) 0.99967    (c) 0.88615
16.

 

 

 

 

 (a) 1.62%  (b) 0.108  (c) 0.8878  (d) 706 more survived due to partial Tr than if no Tr avail;  

 (e) 176 more d could have been prev by 100% Tr    

 NOTE :  The key approach to (d) is to compare survivors now (with partial tr) =1605.6

 against the expected number of survivors if NO tr was available : in other words

 at a 50% fatality rate: (1800)(0.50)=900.  Difference is 705.6  

 Similarly, [e]  compares deaths now (with partial treatment) = 194.4  with deaths if tr were

 available for all - in other words a 1% fatality rate: (1800)(0.01)=18 leaving a difference of = 176

 

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Here is a worked example

EIGHT percent of the food may contain wh/bar/rye when not shown on the label, and eight percent of the food will NOT contain wh/bar/rye even when the label says it does.....

So the probability of at least ONE child with allergy in a class of 30 is 0.454

What is the probability of selecting one child at random who is allergic to nuts or tartrazine, or both?